Putin's War: Russia and Ukraine

"Who in the Lord's name does Putin think gives him the right to declare new so-called countries on territory that belonged to his neighbours?"- Joe Biden, US President. Russia over the years has become accustomed to sanctions from Western governments. Many will argue that by now sanctions have been rendered ineffective as Putin and his inner circle of oligarchs have always found a way to circumvent these sanctions. Vladimir Putin was elected president of Russia in March 2000. The world has watched over the years how he has stifled Opposition in Russia and meddled into the internal affairs of former Soviet Union republics. Many opposition leaders have met an untimely death, have been jailed or have fled in exile. On February 27, 2015, opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was gunned down within sight of the Kremlin, just days after he had spoken out against Russian intervention in Ukraine. It is therefore no surprise that the Russian president and dictator Vladimir Putin has decided to risk it all and invade Ukraine. Putin argues that Russia was robbed after the collapse of the former Soviet Union of which Ukraine was part of. It is safe to say that Putin is of the belief that the Russian Federation should include all the former countries which were once part of the Soviet Union. Putin’s attempt to rewrite history is dangerous and should be met face on. Ukraine was one of the many countries to fight a brutal civil war before being fully absorbed into the Soviet Union in 1922. With a population of 144 million people Russia’s military might is much more robust than that of Ukraine with a population of 44 million people. This war would never have happened if Ukraine had kept its nuclear weapons. Thousands of nuclear arms were left on Ukrainian soil by Moscow after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. But in the years that followed, Ukraine made the decision to completely denuclearize. In exchange, the United States of America, the United Kingdom and Russia would guarantee Ukraine's security in a 1994 agreement known as the Budapest Memorandum. Was the Ukraine misled? There is a growing world view that suggests the Ukraine was betrayed. The History of Ukraine Ukraine is located in Eastern Europe. The country is bordered by Belarus to the north, Russia to the east, the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea to the south, Moldova and Romania to the southwest, and Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland to the west. In the far southeast, Ukraine is separated from Russia by the Kerch Strait, which connects the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. The history of Ukraine has been bloodied and filled with suffering. In the early 1930s, to force peasants to join collective farms, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin orchestrated a famine that resulted in the starvation and death of millions of Ukrainians. Afterward, Stalin imported large numbers of Russians and other Soviet citizens; many with no ability to speak Ukrainian and with few ties to the region in order to help repopulate the Ukraine. Centuries of foreign domination and internal strife have left Ukraine as a pawn between Russia and the West. Russia and Ukraine’s shared heritage goes back more than a thousand years to a time when Kyiv, now Ukraine’s capital, was at the center of the first Slavic state, Kyivan Rus, the birthplace of both Ukraine and Russia. In A.D. 988 Vladimir I, the pagan prince of Novgorod and grand prince of Kyiv, accepted the Orthodox Christian faith and was baptized in the Crimean city of Chersonesus. Interestingly, Putin was baptized into the Orthodox Christian faith; yet his actions against Ukraine are unchristian like. In 1793, Western Ukraine was annexed by the Russian Empire. Over the years that followed, a policy known as Russification banned the use and study of the Ukrainian language, and people were pressured to convert to the Russian Orthodox faith. Many experts believe Putin uses this fact to argue his case that Russia and Ukraine are one. However, this is a simplistic view to hold especially for a world leader. Given that Eastern Ukraine came under Russian rule much earlier than western Ukraine, people in the east have stronger ties to Russia and have been more likely to support Russian-leaning leaders. Western Ukraine, by contrast, spent centuries under the shifting control of European powers such as Poland and the Austro-Hungarian Empire one reason Ukrainians in the west have tended to support more Western-leaning politicians. The eastern population of Ukraine tends to be more Russian-speaking and Orthodox, while parts of the west are more Ukrainian-speaking and Catholic. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine became an independent nation. Just like Russia which is an independent state, Ukraine has a right to choose its own path and forge relations with those she desires. However, for some reason Putin does not get this. Putin is aware that his time is running out and he is desperate to secure a legacy in the eyes of the Russian people. This war is an attempt by Putin to increase his standing domestically as the Russian people are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with his leadership. It is a tactical move by Putin aimed at sowing seeds of immense distraction for the Russian population as his popularity plummets. North Atlantic Treaty Organization The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was created in 1949 by the United States, Canada, and several Western European nations to provide collective security against the former Soviet Union. At present, NATO has 30 members. In 1949, there were 12 founding members of the Alliance: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States. In 2004 three former Soviet republics, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and three members of the former Warsaw Pact: Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia as well as Slovenia joined NATO. Russia has always raised some objection regarding NATO’s eastward expansion. The following quote is attributed to a former Russian foreign minister spokesperson. “If NATO believes that there is any need for such protection in the Baltic region, Russia reserves the right to draw its own conclusions from it and, if necessary, to act accordingly.” And act Russia did in recognizing two separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Ukraine and sending so called peacekeepers to give support. It is only under the aegis of the United Nations that peacekeepers are deployed. Russia is making a mockery of International Law and the United Nations of which they are a permanent member of the Security Council. Putin is trying to redraw the boundaries in Europe in favour of Russia. NATO was the first peacetime military alliance the United States entered into outside of the Western Hemisphere. After the destruction of the Second World War, the nations of Europe struggled to rebuild their economies and ensure their security. Europe at that time required a massive amount of aid to help the war-torn landscapes re-establish industries and produce food, and the latter required assurances against a resurgent Germany or incursions from the Soviet Union. The United States viewed an economically strong, rearmed, and integrated Europe as vital to the prevention of communist expansion across the continent. As a result, Secretary of State George Marshall proposed a program of large-scale economic aid to Europe. The resulting European Recovery Program, or Marshall Plan, not only facilitated European economic integration but promoted the idea of shared interests and cooperation between the United States and Europe. Soviet refusal either to participate in the Marshall Plan or to allow its satellite states in Eastern Europe to accept the economic assistance helped to reinforce the growing division between east and west in Europe. The collective defense arrangements in NATO served to place the whole of Western Europe under the American “nuclear umbrella.” In the 1950s, one of the first military doctrines of NATO emerged in the form of “massive retaliation,” or the idea that if any member was attacked, the United States would respond with a large-scale nuclear attack. The threat of this form of response was meant to serve as a deterrent against Soviet aggression on the continent. Belarus also joined Russia in recent times in a war drill. The Belarusian government is indebted to Putin as Russian troops were sent in recently to quell a democratic uprising. Belarus is a satellite of Russia. This Russia/ Ukraine conflict was an unprovoked and calculated move by Putin for which he must be held accountable. The potential for immense human suffering is great, however; Putin does not care about humanity. The world now knows the real Putin, tyrannical and uncaring. A Pattern of Invasions On August 8, 2008, Russian forces began the invasion of Georgia, marking the start of Europe’s first twenty-first century war. The conflict itself was over within a matter of days, but the repercussions of the Russo-Georgian War continue to reverberate thirteen years on, shaping the wider geopolitical environment. Putin emerged unscathed and was emboldened by that invasion. In 2014 Russia annexed the Crimea Peninsula from the Ukraine. Putin’s relationship with former US president Donald Trump has also given him more confidence to carry out his plan to increase Russia’s territory with an invasion of Ukraine. As president Donald Trump in July of 2019 in a telephone call to Ukrainian president Zelensky pressured the Ukrainian government to investigate Joe Biden. Subsequently, the United States blocked hundreds of millions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine. Hunter Biden, Joe Biden’s son was a director on the board of Burisma a Ukrainian-owned private energy company while his father Joe was the face of Obama administration's on US-Ukrainian relations. Former President Donald Trump and his allies accused Joe Biden of wrongdoing because he had pushed, while vice-president, for the Ukrainian government to fire its top prosecutor, who was investigating the company for which Hunter worked. It was widely thought that Donald Trump was trying to illegally pressure Ukraine to help damage Joe Biden’s election campaign. Mr. Trump denied he had done anything wrong, and he was later acquitted by the Republican-controlled US Senate. Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden in the November 2020 US presidential elections. International Repercussions Russia is the second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia and the world's top producer of natural gas. A Russian invasion of Ukraine will disrupt crude supplies globally but also hasten a global recession. Almost all economies depend on oil and gas imports, and regardless of where they originate the spillover effects on countries will raise energy costs at a time when societies are still barely recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Many Jamaicans are already experiencing the impact of higher food prices and increasing gas prices. Undoubtedly, an increase in oil price will have an automatic increase in goods and services and the cost of living. Additionally, wheat prices continue to surge past nine-year high, amid concerns two of the world's biggest exporters, Russia and Ukraine, are at war. A man-made famine is also very possible as a result of the Russia Ukraine crisis. The economists will agree that there will likely be a global recession if the war between Russia and Ukraine prolongs. We will be required to dip deeper into our pockets. Interestingly, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been noticeably silent on the high cost for oil thus far. Will OPEC increase the production of oil in an attempt to bring stability to a volatile situation? Apart from Kenya, the African Union has been muted regarding the international condemnation of Putin. However, there should be no surprises since most of the rulers of Africa are themselves autocratic leaders. The current Russia Ukraine crisis is one borne out of Putin’s imagination and ego and a sense of hyper masculinity. The only threat Europe posses to Russia is an imaginary one. It is unthinkable that Russia as a permanent member of the UN Security Council is supportive of separatists in Ukraine. There is an eerie World War 2 feeling in the atmosphere; some have made comparisons with Putin’s invading Ukraine to Hitler’s army which invaded several European countries resulting in death, destruction and millions of Jews being sent to concentration camps. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is Jewish. Who starts a war during a pandemic? The totalitarian regime of Belarus must also be held accountable since their troops have also attacked Ukraine. Give Peace a Chance Russia’s war with Ukraine will not solve Putin’s imaginary problems. This war will only lead to global tensions and a reduction of democracies. It is interesting to examine Putin’s circle of world leaders: The Chinese president; the Syrian president, the president of Belarus, the North Korea leader and the leader of Iran. Do connect the dots and see where it leads. Perhaps the world will be trusted into a Cold War sequel. Putin’s aim is simple to topple the democratically elected government of Ukraine. Putin has no regards for human rights; time and time again we have seen his blatant disregard for issues regarding human rights. There has been a push by totalitarian regimes, such as Russia to exert and extend their influences beyond their borders. Putin’s unpopular war has galvanized international opposition and condemnation. Interestingly, Putin’s action against Ukraine has unified NATO and United States. Putin apparently was caught off guard by the unified stance of NATO. Even inside of Russia there have been daily organized demonstrations against the war. Putin’s war is likely to result in an epic humanitarian crisis of refugees all across Europe. Already, the United Nations has reported that over 3 million Ukrainians have crossed the border into neighbouring countries such as Poland and Romania. The Poles have opened their homes to welcome the Ukrainians. Homes, playgrounds, schools and hospitals have not been spared by Russian bombardment. The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) estimates that some 7.5 million children are at risk in Ukraine. However, Putin cares not. Thousands of Ukrainian citizens have already left on trains to bordering countries namely, Hungary, Poland and Moldova, Slovakia and Romania. A number of Caribbean including Jamaican students who went to study medicine in Ukraine are trying to escape via Poland. Families have been torn apart; children are bewildered. Putin is unhinged. There is an urgent sense of desperation as Ukraine citizens try to escape. The images at the Ukrainian train stations are heart- wrenching. One can only imagine the mental health issues which will result, especially as the world emerges from the COVID19 pandemic. History will judge Putin as a leader whose words were meaningless as is seen in the Minsk Protocol. The Minsk Protocol is an agreement which sought to end war in the Donbas region of Ukraine. It failed to stop fighting in Donbas, and was thus followed with a new package of measures, called Minsk II, which was signed on 12 February 2015. The international community must stand up to this dictator. Let us not fool ourselves; China is watching closely how the international community is responding to this crisis. China has repeatedly stated that she plans to forcibly take control of Taiwan. Taiwan's air force reported that nine Chinese aircraft entered its air defense zone on the same day that Russia invaded Ukraine. Like Putin, the Chinese leadership does not respect international law and sovereign rights. If Putin gets away with the invasion and annexation of Ukraine, what will stop him from trying to do the same with the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania? A Russian spokesperson Maria Zakharova at a press conference recently, stated Moscow would have to respond if Sweden and Finland intended to join NATO; Putin’s intention are clear. At no point did NATO issue any threat to Russia. Putin who remains much of an enigma should be brought before the International Criminal Court and charged with crimes against humanity. NATO member states, the US and their allies have been implementing sanctions against Russia which are meant to cripple the Russian economy. The impact of these sanctions will not be felt in the short term; however middle to long term will be disastrous for the Russian economy. The international community must send a strong message to Russia; a message of unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s democratic principles and peaceful development while affirming Ukraine’s right of self-determination. History has taught us that we must stand up to bullies or else the consequences will be grave and great. Russia needs to give peace a chance. In the words of Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukrainian Ambassador at the United Nations, there is no purgatory for war criminals. They go straight to hell. Wayne Campbell is an educator and social commentator with an interest in development policies as they affect culture and or gender issues. waykam@yahoo.com @WayneCamo © #Russia #Ukraine #NATO #BalticStates #InternationalLaw #humanrights #StandWithUkraine #BudapestMemorandum