Generational Shift: Piloted By Youthful Exuberance

“People’s participation is the essence of good governance.”- Narendra Modi The General Elections are over! The Andrew Holness, Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has been returned to power for a second term. While the victory was expected, the margin of win was unexpected. It is safe to say the JLP expected they would have returned to power but they did not think they would have won in a landslide. Numerous polls from last year have pointed to the JLP having a sizeable lead over the People’s National Party (PNP). Pollsters, Don Anderson and Bill Johnson predicted a Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) victory. However, some in the People’s National Party questioned the educational background of the pollsters and sought to discredit their polls. In a newspaper interview days after the election Co-chairman for the PNP’S campaign Phillip Paulwell said the party was misled by its internal polls. Of course the resounding victory of the JLP has vindicated the pollsters. No one or very few thought we would have seen a political tsunami which not only crushed the Opposition, People’s National Party (PNP) led by Peter Phillips but sent him into early retirement. The preliminary count has 48 seats to the Jamaica Labour Party and 15 to the People's National Party. It is very likely that a number of recounts are on the cards, especially in cases where the margin of victory for the PNP is less than 100 votes. The victory of the JLP in the general election of September 3 is reminiscent of 1980 when the Jamaica Labour Party won 51 of the 60 seats in the House of Representatives. However, the People’s National Party rebounded and in 1989 Michael Manley led the PNP to victory. Jamaica’s political history has been one of voting buying, political intimidation, violence and divergent ideology. To say the 1980 general election was very bloody is an understatement. Over 800 Jamaicans were murdered in the weeks and months leading up to the October elections. A significant number of Jamaicans migrated; some were forced to leave due to threats on their lives or that of family members. Jamaica has not recovered from the migration of the middle class during the 1980 general elections. As a society we have come a far way from the divisive nature of our politics. The days of stuffing ballot boxes are behind us thanks to the resources which have been poured into the Electoral Office of Jamaica to safeguard Jamaica’s electoral process. Political Ideology The People’s National Party of the 1970’s embraced a socialist/communist perspective which was quite troubling for the United States of America as well as the owners of capital in Jamaica. The Michael Manley led PNP lost the 1980 general elections. Jamaica paid dearly because of the ideological tug of war leading up to the 1980 general election. Both political parties, the Jamaica Labour Party and the People’s National Party went all out in their campaigns to try and win the hearts and votes of the Jamaican people. In the end the Jamaica Labour Party won a landslide victory. The JLP won 51 of the 60 legislative seats. It is clear that too much emphasis was placed on dub plates in the September 3 general elections. Some politicians had numerous dub plates while ignoring their constituency and they lost. The jury is still out regarding the extent to which national debates impact general elections. However, there is one school of thought that suggests that the Jamaican electorate had already made up their minds prior to the national debate and as such the outcome of the debate was inconsequential. The notion that Jamaica is PNP country has been laid to rest. This view perhaps led the PNP to a place of complacency especially in the parish of Westmoreland. Lloyd B. Smith argues that the PNP’s rejection at the polls was based on its track record of non-performance and for taking the people for granted, especially in Westmoreland. Smith, a former deputy speaker of the House of Representative said, “Because it was assumed that Westmoreland was PNP country, the electors were being taken for granted. There were not any real meaningful efforts being made to upgrade the standard and quality of living of the people of Westmoreland and the JLP skillfully went in and did a number of infrastructural work, among other things, and their representatives were on the ground from early, not just since the election date was announced,” said Smith. His views were supported by another veteran of the PNP, Dr. Karl Blythe, former PNP deputy president and four-time Member of Parliament (MP) for Westmoreland Central. Once the Jamaican people believe in and trust the leader of the party nothing else really matters. It is evident that the victory by the Jamaica Labour Party is due largely to popularity of Andrew Holness. Holness has an awesome responsibility in the months and years ahead. Post Election Now that the general elections are over the Prime Minister can give his full attention to tackling the novel coronavirus and rebuilding the Jamaican economy. Jamaica has seen a spike in the number of confirmed COVID19 cases as well as in the number of COVID19 deaths. This election was like none before as the world is currently in the midst of a pandemic. The campaigning shifted from the streets and town squares to social media platforms. There are those who questioned the timing of the election by Prime Minister Andrew Holness in the middle of a pandemic. However, under our Constitution the calling of general elections is the mandate of the Prime Minister. Jamaica, unlike some other jurisdictions does not have a fixed election date. The United States of America has a fixed election date so there are no surprises regarding when elections are supposed to be held. In 2016, the Jamaica Labour Party barely squeezed out a victory in winning 33 of the 63 constituency seats to form the government. In 1962, the JLP won the general elections; the party went on to win 33 of the 53 seats in the 1967 elections. Generational Shift At age 48 Andrew Holness is relatively young and has a number of good political years ahead. Peter Phillips is much older at 70. He recently had surgery for Stage 3 colon cancer. Phillips was asked about his health in the national debates and replied he was healthy and free from cancer. Andrew is viewed as a Brogad like figure. Who or what is a ‘brogad’ you might ask. According to Urban Dictionary, brogad is that cool and well dressed dude that every male wants to be. In the Jamaican context a brogad is a term of endearment used to describe one of your closer bro’s. The Jamaican political landscape is changing and to a great extent has changed. The Jamaican population is more youthful and many Jamaicans can identify with a leader closer to their age than one who is from one or two generations apart. The PNP needs to take this factor into account as they begin the journey of soul searching and rebuilding. The People’s National Party needs a young and vibrant leader who will be able to rebuild the party in order to attract the Jamaican electorate. The idea of safe political seats has been thrown out the window as we saw a number of PNP ‘safe seats’ going to the Jamaica Labour Party. Among the most noticeable swing in PNP safe seats are Central Kingston, Manchester Central once held by Peter Bunting, Westmoreland Western recently held by Wykeham McNeil, St. Thomas Eastern, once held by Fenton Ferguson and Clarendon Northern, recently held by Horace Dalley. Interestingly, the official count of votes in Westmoreland Eastern has ended in a tie. The Jamaica Labour Party's candidate, Daniel Lawrence, and the People's National Party incumbent, Luther Buchanan, have each polled 4,834 votes. The Returning Officer will vote to break the tie. It is widely expected that this will be going to the courts. The signs were on the wall from very early that trouble was brewing within the PNP. Newcomer to politics Ann Marie Vaz won the East Portland seat. This constituency was a PNP stronghold for some 30 years. Peter Bunting challenged Peter Phillips last September for the leadership of the PNP. Phillips emerged the winner with 1,427 to Bunting 1,351 votes. While Bunting lost the leadership race many saw him as a stronger opponent to Holness. In fact quite a number of Bunting colleagues also lost their seats. Phillips assumed leadership of the PNP in 2017 shortly after the party which was led by Portia Simpson lost the 2016 general elections. Many supporters of Portia Simpson- Miller have not forgiven Phillips’ challenge to Sista P in a bitter leadership race in 2008. Additionally, in 2006 Phillips was also in a leadership race of the PNP after the retirement of former Prime Minister P.J. Patterson. Simpson Miller won that leadership race. What does this shift from orange to green means? Well, it means the Jamaican electorate cannot be taken for granted. Members of Parliament who do not work will be voted out regardless of the political history of the constituency. This change in voting pattern is a welcome move and serves as a warning to slothful Members of Parliament who are more into hype. The Jamaican electorate is demanding more from their elected representative and rightly so. It is widely thought that the younger voters carried the Jamaica Labour Party to victory. Many Jamaicans did not wish to gamble with replacing Holness with an ageing Phillips especially in a time of the novel coronavirus. It was obvious that the Jamaica Labour Party outspent the People’s National Party in paid political advertisements both in the print and the electronic media. Social media also played a part in the JLP’s victory. The JLP had a stronger presence on social media platforms and utilized this to their advantage. Female Representation According to United Nations Women, women’s political representation globally has doubled in the last 25 years. The UN Women added, women continue to be significantly underrepresented in the highest political positions. In October 2019, there were only 12 women Head of State and 13 women Head of Government. It is refreshing to see an increase number of female parliamentarians going to Gordon House. The issue of gender parity was one of the questions asked in the leadership debate with Peter Phillips and Andrew Holness. Phillips, during the debate with Prime Minister Andrew Holness, was criticized for suggesting that the domestic requirements of women in traditional households impacted their upward movement in the political process. Many people thought Phillips poorly answered the question. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goal #5 speaks to gender equality. Gender equality is not only a fundamental human right, but a necessary foundation for a peaceful, prosperous and sustainable world. The UN added there has been progress over the last decades: more girls are going to school, fewer girls are forced into early marriage, more women are serving in parliament and positions of leadership and laws are being reformed to advance gender equality. Despite these gains, many challenges remain: discriminatory laws and social norms remain pervasive, women continue to be underrepresented at all levels of political leadership, and 1 in 5 women and girls between the ages of 15 and 49 report experiencing physical or sexual violence by an intimate partner within a 12-month period. Fourteen of 18 women representing the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the September 3 general election won their seats, among them seven newcomers. The number brings a new record for female representation in parliament at any time to 18, fourteen for the JLP and four for the People’s National Party (PNP). Jamaica now has 28.6% of elected Members of Parliament as women. This sizeable increase in parliamentary female representation speaks to the power of women who for many years worked behind the scenes to support men in the political process. It bares thought that gone are those days; women’s voices are now being heard and this augers well for gender equality and gender parity. Strengthening Democracy Jamaica needs both political parties to be strong. Our democracy benefits more from a strong opposition. However, with a commanding majority in Parliament, the Andrew Holness led government can address constitutional reforms, such as fixed election dates, term limits and anti-crime measures. There are a number of names being mentioned as potential president of the PNP; among them are Julian Robertson, 54 years and Mark Golding age 55. Golding was also a supporter of Bunting in his failed leadership challenge of the PNP; these are interesting times. Many in the PNP questioned the timing of Bunting regarding the leadership race to Phillips. Undoubtedly, the PNP will rebound and the state of Jamaica’s democracy will be better off from having a strong opposition in Parliament. There is much cause for concern surrounding the declining voter turnout percentage at general elections. In 2016 only 47.7% of those eligible to vote did so. The Electoral Office of Jamaica reported a 37% voter turnout for Thursday’s election. In 2020 the percentage of voter turnout fell to under 40%. Undoubtedly, the COVID-19 pandemic prevented some Jamaicans from voting; however, the numbers do not lie and unquestionably there is a growing sense of voter apathy among the electorate. The government needs to find a way to engage or reengage those electors who have been turned off from the process. Apart from the pandemic, the government of Andrew Holness must tackle crime and day and night noise as priority areas. The next few years will be challenging for the government of Andrew Holness. We have a duty to ensure that the government succeeds as much as possible. The society, the church, the business community, civil society all has a part to play in ensuring that the government is accountable. In the words of A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, in a democracy, the well-being, individuality and happiness of every citizen is important for the overall prosperity, peace and happiness of the nation. Wayne Campbell is an educator and social commentator with an interest in development policies as they affect culture and or gender issues. waykam@yahoo.com @WayneCamo ©