Tourism, Remittances and the Partial US Government Shutdown

“I had always hoped that this land might become a safe and agreeable asylum to the virtuous persecuted part of mankind, to whatever nation they might belong.”- George Washington
According to the WTTC travel and tourism accounts for more than 313 million jobs as well 10.4 per cent of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or 9.9 per cent of total employment in 2017.  The travel and tourism industry is especially vital to Caribbean societies. Tourism is very often referred to as the engine of growth for Caribbean islands. The tourism industry is a major player in providing employment both directly and indirectly in the region. A survey done in 2010 by the Oxford Economic Organization found that tourism played a larger role in Caribbean economies than it did in any of other region.
Effects of Partial Government Shutdown on the Travel and Tourism Industry
We are all familiar with the saying if the United States economy sneezes the economies of the region come down with a cold. Due largely in part to globalization, the world is more interconnected now than at any other time in the history of mankind. Events and decisions happening in the major capitals of the world have a direct as well as an indirect impact for peoples far removed. According to the tourism minister, 65 per cent of all visitors to Jamaica are from the United States. Data from the Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) shows a record 4.3 million tourists visited Jamaica in 2017. This figure comprised 2,353,461 stopover arrivals and 1,946,780 cruise passengers, contributing US$3 billion dollars to Jamaica’s Gross Domestic Product. This arrival figure represents a 12.1 per cent increase over arrivals in 2016.  Undoubtedly, if US workers do not receive a pay cheque they are not going to travel. The partial government shutdown in the United States is now entering its fourth week. Now only are some government services no longer being provided to its citizenry but we have seen where the Miami International Airport, which is a major international and connecting hub have been forced to close one its terminals due to the unusual high number of its employees not reporting for work. According to the Orlando Sentinel newspapers, screeners employed at the airport have missed their pay cheque and the airport out of a concern that there would not be adequate staffing to handle all eleven check points during normal hours over the weekend. According to an airport spokesman Terminal G will close at 1 pm on Saturday and reopen for flights Sunday morning and close again at 1 pm that same day. It is important to note that Terminal G serves United Airlines which is a major US based carrier. The Miami Herald reported that Terminal G is the slowest concourse which only 12 flights departing after 1pm.  The spokesperson at Miami International Airport stated that Terminal G’s flights will be diverted to other terminals. The spokesperson cautioned that if additional screeners did not show up for work the airport could be forced to close a security checkpoint at terminal with multiple entry points such as Concourse J or D.  Additionally, the George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston was forced to close one of its security screening check points over the weekend because of the partial government shutdown. While the politics of Washington continues to be played out the safety and security of people are compromised. It is imperative that the Republican controlled Senate and the Congress, which is controlled by the Democrats work assiduously to arrive at a solution as failure to so will have catastrophic consequences for geo-political arena. A solution satisfying the US President hinges on him getting $5.7billion dollars to build a wall on the Mexican border before he signs off on any such deals. It is within reason to envisage the US economy going into a recession if this partial government shutdown is prolonged. One can also envisage that such a recession can drag the international community in recession. In 2017 international tourism revenue amounted to $1.34 trillion US dollars. According to the World Bank international tourism receipts are expenditures by international inbound visitors, including payments to national carriers for international transport.  It bares thought that a discussion on travel and tourism is incomplete unless the issue of global remittances is examined. Data from the World Bank states that remittances to low- and middle income countries reached $466 billion in 2017, an increase of 8.5 per cent over $429 billion in 2016.  The same source stated that global remittances which include flows to high income countries grew 7 per cent to $713 billion in 2017. The World Bank top five remittance recipients are India with $69 billion, China with $64 billion, The Philippines $33 billion, Mexico $31 billion and Nigeria with $22 billion. Latin America and the Caribbean accounted for nearly $80 billion in remittances in 2017 according to the World Bank. Jamaicans living in the Diaspora sent home US$2.2 billion in 2016.  Should the US President prevail and construct his wall along the Mexican border if is safe to conclude that Mexico will see a drop in remittance inflow. Interestingly, the World Bank pointed out that among the risks to growth of remittances are stricter Immigration policies in many remittance-source countries. As a major remittance-source country the United States continue to grapple with its refashioning its Immigration policies against the background of a Republican president. There is no question that the United States has millions of undocumented immigrants. However, too often in the political realm we hear of figures which bear no resemblance to reality as the research to substantiate the figures are often suspect or fake. A recent study published by the respected Pew Research Center put the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States at 10.7 million in 2016 far less than the 12.2 million in 2007.  The research added that while Mexicans account for the largest percentage of illegal immigrants living in the United States migration out of Mexico has slowed against the background of global political and economic shifts. There are millions of undocumented immigrants in the United States who have no intention of growing old there. This is clearly not an excuse for not using the legal channels to get to the United States. Undeniably, remittances keep many societies afloat. Remittances are used from paying school fees, to burials, from covering medical expenses to buying groceries, from paying rent or mortgage to paying for extra lessons. So while both parties continue pussyfooting around finding a suitable Immigration policy many families, especially children and women are going to be negatively impacted more so than any other category in the population.  As reported in the one of our local newspapers consular services provided by the United States might be impacted in an extended government shutdown. Isn’t it ironic that an extended government shutdown has the potential to do the opposite of what the essence of the shutdown is about? There are thousands in line who have chosen the legal channels to get to the United States. We need to keep a close eye on the developments in Washington regarding how much longer the partial government shutdown will continue since there will be certainly shock waves not only in Kingston but in other capitals across the world.  
In the words of John F. Kennedy, everywhere immigrants have enriched and strengthened the fabric of American life.       

Wayne Campbell is an educator and social commentator with an interest in development policies as they affect culture and or gender issues.
waykam@yahoo.com
@WayneCamo

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